L1.1 技术和产品准备度

L1.1 技术和产品准备度

技术和产品准备度

技术与产品的演进

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上面这张图展示了如何在技术尚未完全成熟时，启动产品开发，以及技术如何随着新需求或洞察逐步演进，并支持产品的更新换代。

1. 产品1.0：由先前研发的的技术3支撑，加上“产品开发可以在预期的技术开发成果的基础上提前启动”，即在技术1启动研发后不久开始。
   从产品1.0出发，新的视角、需求和刺激，推动了新科技的产生，即图中的技术2.0.
   技术2.0推动了产品1.0的改进版，即产品1.1.
2. 产品2：在技术1、由产品启动的技术2的共同支撑下，推出的新一代产品。
   技术2.1作为技术2的改进版，和产品2同时开始发展，并在产品2发展中途加入。
   此外，独立发展的技术4同样在产品2的发展中途加入。这些中途加入的技术表明，同一个产品中使用的技术可以被替代升级，或者携带到下一代中。

我们可以做出如下总结：

• 技术与产品的协同进化：两者并非线性依赖，而是相互促进的动态过程。
• 前瞻性与灵活性：成功的开发需要在不确定性中做出决策，同时保持技术选择的适应性。
• 创新的复杂性：技术开发可能分叉并行，产品开发则需整合多方成果。

The above picture shows how to start product development when the technology is not yet fully mature, and how the technology gradually evolves with new demands or insights to support the upgrading of the product.

1. Product 1.0: Supported by the previously developed Technology 3, and with the concept that "product development can start ahead of the expected technological development results", it began shortly after the initiation of Technology 1's research and development.
   From Product 1.0, new perspectives, demands, and stimuli led to the emergence of new technologies, namely Technology 2.0 in the diagram.
   Technology 2.0 drove the improvement of Product 1.0, resulting in Product 1.1.
2. Product 2: A new generation of product launched with the joint support of Technology 1 and Technology 2, which was initiated by the product.
   Technology 2.1, as an improved version of Technology 2, began to develop simultaneously with Product 2 and was incorporated midway through its development.
   In addition, independently developed Technology 4 was also incorporated midway through the development of Product 2. These technologies incorporated midway indicate that the technologies used in the same product can be replaced and upgraded, or carried over to the next generation.

We can draw the following conclusion:

• The Co-evolution of Technology and Products: The two are not linearly dependent but rather a dynamic process of mutual promotion.
• Proactivity and Flexibility: Successful development requires making decisions in the face of uncertainty while maintaining the adaptability of technology choices.
• The Complexity of Innovation: Technology development may branch out and proceed in parallel, while product development needs to integrate the achievements of multiple parties.

技术准备度（TRL）

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技术准备度是用于评估技术成熟度的框架，从基础研究到实际应用，被逐层量化，帮助管理者判断一项技术是否已经准备好在特定任务中使用。

我们按照图中展示的级别进行讨论，有两种分级方式：

* 基础技术研究：包括技术成熟度1和2.1. 成熟度1：观察到某种基本原理，例如通电导线能产生磁场，或者气体膨胀/收缩和加减速的关系。2. 成熟度2：基于基本原理，提出技术概念，并开始构思具体的技术应用。
* 技术开发：包括技术成熟度3、4、5、6.1. 成熟度3：通过分析和实验，初步证明技术的核心概念的可行性。2. 成熟度4：在实验室中验证部件，例如测试火箭发动机喷管的推力性能。3. 成熟度5：在相关环境中验证部件，如在模拟太空环境中，对发动机喷管进行测试。4. 成熟度6：在相关环境中验证系统或子系统模型，此时技术从单个组件扩展，在系统层级集成。
* 系统/子系统开发：包括技术成熟度6、7、8、9.1. 成熟度62. 成熟度7：在空间环境中验证并演示系统原型，如一个安装了新型喷管的航天器原型进行演示。3. 成熟度8：系统完成并通过测试和演示，达到“飞行合格”状态，如安装新型发动机的航天器通过各项认证，已经准备好发射。。4. 成熟度9：技术通过实际任务操作被证明有效，如上述航天器成功发射并执行任务。

* 可行性研究：成熟度2、3、4，即技术概念与应用构思-核心概念验证-实验室部件验证；
* 技术演示：成熟度5、6、7，即相关环境部件验证-相关环境系统验证-原型机验证；
* 系统测试、启动和运营：成熟度8、9，即整个系统通过测试和验证，并成功执行实际任务。

下面这张图形象地说明了技术准备度的各个层级所对应的表现。

Technology readiness is a framework used to assess the maturity of technology, quantifying it layer by layer from basic research to practical application, helping managers determine whether a technology is ready for use in a specific task.

We will discuss according to the levels shown in the figure. There are two ways of classification:

one

* Basic technology research: including Technology Readiness Levels 1 and 2.1. Maturity Level 1: Observing some fundamental principle, such as the fact that an electrified wire can generate a magnetic field, or the relationship between gas expansion/contraction and acceleration/deceleration.2. Maturity Level 2: Based on fundamental principles, proposing technical concepts and beginning to conceive specific technical applications.
* Technology Development: Including Technology Maturity Levels 3, 4, 5, and 6.1. Maturity Level 3: Through analysis and experimentation, the feasibility of the core concepts of the technology is initially demonstrated.2. Maturity Level 4: Components are verified in the laboratory, such as testing the thrust performance of a rocket engine nozzle.3. Maturity Level 5: Components are verified in relevant environments, for example, testing engine nozzles in a simulated space environment.4. Maturity Level 6: System or subsystem models are verified in relevant environments, at which point the technology expands from individual components to integration at the system level.
* System/Subsystem Development: Includes Technology Maturity Levels 6, 7, 8, and 9.1. Maturity Level 62. Maturity Level 7: Verify and demonstrate the system prototype in a space environment, such as a spacecraft prototype equipped with a new type of nozzle.3. Maturity Level 8: The system is completed and passes tests and demonstrations, reaching a "flight-qualified" status, such as a spacecraft with a new engine passing all certifications and being ready for launch.4. Maturity Level 9: The technology is proven effective through actual mission operations, such as the successful launch and mission execution of the aforementioned spacecraft. 2.

* Feasibility study: Maturity levels 2, 3, and 4, namely, technical concept and application conception - core concept validation - laboratory component validation;
* Technology demonstration: Maturity levels 5, 6, and 7, namely, relevant environment component validation - relevant environment system validation - prototype validation;
* System testing, start-up and operation: Maturity levels 8 and 9, namely, the entire system passes testing and validation and successfully performs actual tasks.

The following picture vividly illustrates the corresponding manifestations of each level of technological readiness.

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从这里我们可以得到如下结论和注意点：

• 相互依赖：技术成熟推动产品成功，而产品应用验证技术成熟，二者相辅相成。
• 量化管理：TRL为航空航天领域的风险控制和资源规划提供了标准化依据，确保技术在投入任务前达到足够的可靠性。
• 在工业界中，技术准备度的定义不一定和上述描述完全符合，但是大差不差。

From here, we can draw the following conclusions and points to note:

• Mutual Dependence: Technological maturity drives product success, while product application validates technological maturity. The two complement each other.
• Quantitative Management: TRL provides a standardized basis for risk control and resource planning in the aerospace field, ensuring that technologies reach sufficient reliability before being put into service.
• In the industrial sector, the definition of technology readiness may not exactly match the above description, but it is more or less the same.

产品开发的过程/流程

下面这张图描述了“阶段-关卡”（或“阶段-门”）式的产品开发流程。

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该图将产品开发流程分为6个阶段：

1. 调查：评估是否存在可行性，以决定是否继续推进产品概念。

   • 关卡和问题：概念关卡。有业务可行性吗？

   • 任务和交付成果：

     1. 产品管理：了解产品需求和类似商业案例。
     2. 工程：技术可行性研究和测试，创建项目开发计划，估算产品成本

2. 定义：检查是否有一个清晰且可执行的计划，以进入设计阶段。

   • 关卡和问题：产品定义。我们能执行吗？检查是否有一个清晰、可执行的计划。

   • 任务和交付成果：

     1. 产品管理：制定营销计划。
     2. 工程：创建产品规格、验证测试计划和人员配备计划。
     3. 生产：进行DFM（可制造性设计）审查，准备物料清单（BOM），估算产品成本，制定供应链计划并规划提前采购。

3. 设计：验证产品设计是否满足要求并准备好进行进一步测试。

   • 关卡和问题：产品设计。我们设计得正确吗？

   • 任务和交付成果：

     1. 产品管理：准备实地测试计划、产品支持计划、营销物料清单、包装计划。
     2. 工程：构建原型，完成设计，提交单元测试结果、可制造性审查报告。

4. 验证：确保产品经过充分测试，准备好进行试点运行并可能对外宣布。

   • 关卡和问题：验证测试。我们设计的东西是正确的吗？可以宣布了吗？

   • 任务和交付成果：

     1. 产品管理：进行实地测试，收集测试结果，更新营销计划。
     2. 工程：执行验证测试并收集结果，进行合规性审查和初步测试。
     3. 生产：制定生产测试计划。

5. 试点：根据试点运行结果，判断产品是否准备好进入全面生产。

   • 关卡和问题：试点。我们准备好扩大规模了吗？

   • 任务和交付成果：

     1. 产品管理：收集客户反馈。
     2. 工程：进行试点运行分析，收集验证测试结果，进行最终的合规性测试。
     3. 生产：进行试点审查。

6. 生产：扩大生产规模并支持产品在市场上的推广。

   • 任务和交付成果：

     1. 产品管理：进行销售预测。
     2. 工程：提供技术支持。
     3. 生产：管理生产过程。

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1. Investigation: Evaluate if there is feasibility to decide whether to proceed with the product concept.

   • Gate and question: Concept gate. Is there business feasibility?

   • Tasks and deliverables:

     1. Product management: Understand product needs and similar business cases.
     2. Engineering: Technical feasibility study and testing, create project development plan, estimate product cost.

2. Definition: Check if there is a clear and executable plan to enter the design phase.

   • Gate and question: Product definition. Can we execute? Check if there is a clear, executable plan.

   • Tasks and deliverables:

     1. Product management: Develop marketing plan.
     2. Engineering: Create product specifications, validation test plan, and staffing plan.
     3. Production: Conduct DFM (Design for Manufacturability) review, prepare Bill of Materials (BOM), estimate product cost, develop supply chain plan, and plan for advance procurement.

3. Design: Verify if the product design meets requirements and is ready for further testing.

   • Gate and question: Product design. Did we design it correctly?

   • Tasks and deliverables:

     1. Product management: Prepare field test plan, product support plan, marketing BOM, packaging plan.
     2. Engineering: Build prototypes, complete design, submit unit test results, manufacturability review report.

4. Validation: Ensure the product is thoroughly tested, ready for pilot run, and possibly for announcement.

   • Gate and question: Validation test. Is what we designed correct? Can we announce it?

   • Tasks and deliverables:

     1. Product management: Conduct field tests, collect test results, update marketing plan.
     2. Engineering: Execute validation tests and collect results, conduct compliance review and preliminary testing.
     3. Production: Develop production test plan.

5. Pilot: Based on pilot run results, determine if the product is ready for full production.

   • Gate and question: Pilot. Are we ready to scale up?

   • Tasks and deliverables:

     1. Product management: Collect customer feedback.
     2. Engineering: Conduct pilot run analysis, collect validation test results, perform final compliance testing.
     3. Production: Conduct pilot review.

6. Production: Scale up production and support the product's market launch.

   • Tasks and deliverables:

     1. Product management: Conduct sales forecasting.
     2. Engineering: Provide technical support.
     3. Production: Manage production process.

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从这里我们可以得到如下结论：

• 图中的产品开发流程是一个经过深思熟虑的框架，通过阶段划分和关卡审查，确保产品从概念到市场的每一步都经过充分验证。
  其核心优势在于：

  1. 结构化，将产品开发分解为六个明确阶段，每个阶段都有具体目标和交付成果，关卡则作为决策点，确保前一阶段的工作完成后再进入下一阶段。
     适用于复杂项目，能有效避免关键步骤的遗漏，确保产品开发有条不紊地推进。
  2. 跨职能协作，产品管理、工程和生产团队在每个阶段协同工作，综合考虑商业、技术和生产需求，避免单一视角导致的偏差，提升产品成功的可能性。
  3. 风险管理，在流程中设置检查点，可以提前识别和缓解风险，避免资源浪费或项目失败。
  4. 同时通过反馈循环（实地测试、试点运行，允许在全面生产前对产品进行改进），保证产品质量和市场适应性。

• 在具体实施时，需要根据项目特点灵活调整，例如在快速迭代的行业中融入敏捷元素，或在高风险项目中加强早期测试。
  这样有利于最大化流程的价值，帮助团队高效开发出满足市场需求的产品。

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From this, we can draw the following conclusions:

• The product development process in the diagram is a well-thought-out framework that ensures each step from concept to market is thoroughly validated through phase division and gate reviews.
  Its core advantages are:

  1. Structured approach: The product development is broken down into six distinct phases, each with specific goals and deliverables. Gates serve as decision points, ensuring that the work of the previous phase is completed before moving to the next.
     This is suitable for complex projects, effectively preventing the omission of critical steps and ensuring the product development progresses in an orderly manner.
  2. Cross-functional collaboration: Product management, engineering, and production teams work together at each stage, comprehensively considering business, technical, and production needs. This avoids biases from a single perspective and increases the likelihood of product success.
  3. Risk management: Checkpoints are set in the process to identify and mitigate risks early, avoiding resource waste or project failure.
  4. Additionally, through feedback loops (field testing, pilot runs, allowing for product improvements before full production), the process ensures product quality and market adaptability.

• In specific implementations, it is necessary to flexibly adjust according to project characteristics, such as incorporating agile elements in fast-iterating industries or strengthening early testing in high-risk projects.
  This helps maximize the value of the process, assisting teams in efficiently developing products that meet market demands.

过程成熟度

前面所述的“阶段-门”机制虽然看起来很好，但是还是有一些问题的，因此提出了“过程成熟度”和“能力成熟度”的概念。

首先，我把PPT上这一页的“read more”链接内容摘录部分在这里，主要是讲过程成熟度的。

在当今竞争激烈、市场份额争夺白热化、抢占市场先机至关重要的快节奏行业中，产品开发成为缩短交货期的目标。在这种背景下，在阶段门产品开发的产品开发过程中，尽管知识和信息稀缺且存在缺陷，但仍需做出决策。
挑战在于如何在不确定性和模糊性的情况下支持所做出的决策。本论文从分析阶段门流程在航空航天工业中的作用开始。阶段门流程不仅仅是一个决策机制，而是一种促进团队成员之间沟通、讨论和知识共享的机制，同时支持知识的创造和塑造人们不同认知的知识库边界。
然而，阶段门的沟通和协商功能高度依赖于参与个人在整个过程中对可用知识资产的状态和质量的反思能力。 
为了使这种反思性活动成为阶段门实践的一个明确部分，本论文提出在门径处应用知识成熟度概念，以提高决策者对决策点所处理的知识资产状况的认识。知识成熟度概念考虑了三个基本维度：输入、方法/工具以及评估知识库成熟度的经验/专业知识。
该量表旨在作为一个边界对象，通过突出知识库的当前状况，使利益相关者了解项目的不确定性和模糊性。
在知识成熟度概念中，其目的是在门径处支持设计团队采取适当的行动，降低风险，并将他们的努力集中在最需要改进的知识资产上，考虑到具体情况，最终做出更自信的决策。

然后，我们看到下面这张图。

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这里展示的是“能力成熟度模型”，它分为五个级别。

1. 初始：依赖能人和英雄主义，非常随意，你基本无法预测生产力和质量。
   为进化到下一个级别，需要让流程变得有纪律。

2. 可重复：有基本的项目管理，生产力和质量开始改善。
   为进化到下一个级别，需要引入标准化流程。

   • 流程领域：需求管理、项目规划、项目监控与控制、供应商协议管理、测量与分析、流程与产品质量保证、配置管理。

3. 定义：通过流程标准化，生产力和质量得到了显著提升。
   为进化到下一个级别，需要引入量化（或“可预测”）的管理。

   • 流程领域：需求开发、技术解决方案、产品集成、验证、确认、组织流程关注、组织流程定义、组织培训、集成项目管理、风险管理、决策分析与解决。

4. 管理：通过数据驱动，实现更高的可预测性和质量。
   为进化到下一个级别，需要长期持续的流程改进。

   • 流程领域：组织流程绩效、量化项目管理。

5. 优化：生产力和质量达到最高。

   • 流程领域：组织创新与部署、因果分析与解决。

这有点像那种精灵养成游戏升级，通过从无序到优化的递进路径，逐步提升软件开发与项目管理的生产力和质量。

Here is the Capability Maturity Model, which is divided into five levels.

1. Initial: Relies on capable individuals and heroism, very ad hoc, you basically cannot predict productivity and quality.

   • To evolve to the next level, it is necessary to make the process disciplined.

2. Repeatable: There is basic project management, and productivity and quality begin to improve.

   • To evolve to the next level, it is necessary to introduce standardized processes.
   • Process areas: Requirements management, project planning, project monitoring and control, supplier agreement management, measurement and analysis, process and product quality assurance, configuration management.

3. Defined: Through process standardization, productivity and quality have significantly improved.

   • To evolve to the next level, it is necessary to introduce quantitative (or 'predictable') management.
   • Process areas: Requirements development, technical solution, product integration, verification, validation, organizational process focus, organizational process definition, organizational training, integrated project management, risk management, decision analysis and resolution.

4. Managed: Through data-driven approaches, achieve higher predictability and quality.

   • To evolve to the next level, long-term continuous process improvement is needed.
   • Process areas: Organizational process performance, quantitative project management.

5. Optimizing: Productivity and quality reach the highest level.

   • Process areas: Organizational innovation and deployment, causal analysis and resolution.

This is somewhat like leveling up in a pet-raising game, gradually improving productivity and quality in software development and project management through a progressive path from disorder to optimization.

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下一个是知识成熟度模型，它被从低到高，分成1-5分：

1. 低等（inferior）：知识不可靠，难以信任或复制。
   内容和依据具有不稳定性，缺乏一致性和可靠性；
   生产程序高度依赖个人，没有正式方法，流程完全不标准化。
2. 可疑的（dubious）
3. 可接受的：知识变得可靠，流程开始系统化。
   内容和依据更标准化、定义明确；
   通过提供更多、更好的细节和定义，让知识记录更清晰；
   生产程序更稳定，具有标准化和可重复性，减少对个人的依赖。
4. 好的
5. 非常好的：知识成熟，流程系统化，且不断优化。
   内容和依据经过测试和证明，对风险已知并有信心；
   生产程序采用经过验证的方法，员工持续反思和改进，形成改进文化；
   经验教训是这一等级的关键。

从这里，和之前的能力成熟度，综合一下，我们可以用下面这句话概括：

“从无序到有序，从经验到科学，从静态到动态。”

Next is the Knowledge Maturity Model, which is rated from low to high on a scale of 1 to 5:

1. Inferior: Knowledge is unreliable, difficult to trust or replicate.

   • Content and basis are unstable, lacking consistency and reliability;
   • Production processes are highly dependent on individuals, with no formal methods, and the process is completely unstandardized.

2. Dubious

3. Acceptable: Knowledge becomes reliable, and processes begin to systematize.

   • Content and basis are more standardized and clearly defined;
   • By providing more and better details and definitions, knowledge records become clearer;
   • Production processes are more stable, with standardization and repeatability, reducing dependence on individuals.

4. Good

5. Very Good: Knowledge is mature, processes are systematized and continuously optimized.

   • Content and basis have been tested and proven, with known risks and confidence;
   • Production processes use verified methods, and employees continuously reflect and improve, forming a culture of improvement;
   • Lessons learned are key at this level.

From this, combined with the previous Capability Maturity Model, we can summarize it with the following statement:

"From disorder to order, from experience to science, from static to dynamic. "

成熟度和“阶段-门”的综合应用

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这张图是一个阶段-门开发流程当中，在门径处应用知识成熟度的方法。

• 左边：过程和知识成熟度可以基于交付成果进行评估。

  1. 活动：项目团队收集信息。
  2. 综合分析：对信息进行整合和深入研究。
  3. 交付成果：生成可评估的输出，用于关卡决策。

• 右边：门径处的Go/Kill决策。

  1. 在原始Cooper模型中，如果成熟度高，不确定性低，项目更有可能允许继续推进；如果有较多的未知，项目可能被打回重做、暂停，或被砍掉。
  2. 在实用决策模型中，我们把打回重做/暂停这一步骤，换成了有条件继续/采取行动，允许项目在解决某些问题后继续推进。
  3. 引入知识成熟度，确保“不确定性必须被评估和管理”，允许对“有条件继续/采取行动”这一步做的更加细化，这样通过在每个关卡要求解决特定不确定性来管理风险

总结：

• 基于开发和分析/资格过程的可交付成果，可以评估过程和知识成熟度，并用于管理技术和产品开发；
• 必须评估和管理不确定性；
• 使用结构化和有门控的过程，在这些过程中，知识成熟度是决策的关键考虑因素，决定继续/有条件继续/终止。

This figure illustrates a method of applying knowledge maturity at the gate within a stage-gate development process.

• Left side: Process and knowledge maturity can be assessed based on deliverables.

  1. Activity: The project team collects information.
  2. Comprehensive analysis: Integrate and deeply study the information.
  3. Deliverables: Generate assessable outputs for gate decisions.

• Right side: Go/Kill decisions at the gate.

  1. In the original Cooper model, if maturity is high and uncertainty is low, the project is more likely to be allowed to proceed; if there are many unknowns, the project may be sent back for rework, put on hold, or killed.
  2. In the practical decision model, we replaced the step of sending back for rework/putting on hold with conditional continuation/taking action, allowing the project to proceed after resolving certain issues.
  3. Introducing knowledge maturity ensures that "uncertainty must be assessed and managed," allowing for a more detailed approach to "conditional continuation/taking action," thereby managing risk by requiring the resolution of specific uncertainties at each gate.

Summary:

• Based on deliverables from the development and analysis/qualification process, process and knowledge maturity can be assessed and used to manage technology and product development.
• Uncertainty must be assessed and managed.
• Use a structured and gated process where knowledge maturity is a key consideration in decision-making, determining whether to continue, conditionally continue, or terminate.

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