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在本系列文章中，我们梳理了运筹学顶刊Management Science11月份发布的47篇文章的基本信息，旨在帮助读者快速洞察行业最新动态。本文为第三部分。

文章1

● 题目：The Dynamic Informativeness of Scheduled News

定时新闻的动态信息量

● 原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4970

● 作者：Julio A. Crego, Jasmin Gider

● 发布时间：2023.11.22

● 摘要：

We propose a method to identify the informativeness of a future scheduled announcement at the daily level, exploiting the discontinuity it creates in the term structure of option volatility. We implement the strategy in a panel data model to estimate the relation between prior signals and the future announcement. This method allows us to separate substitutes from complements, it can isolate multiple signals within the same quarter, and it can condition on the timing and signal characteristics. We find that analyst forecasts substitute earnings announcement information and that recommendations do not provide extra information on top of forecasts. Moreover, our evidence suggests that insiders sell to avoid uncertainty when the announcement is far away but pull forward earnings information when they trade one month before.

我们提出了一种方法，利用未来计划公告在期权波动率期限结构中产生的不连续性，在日线级别上识别未来计划公告的信息性。我们在面板数据模型中实施了这一策略，以估计先前信号与未来公告之间的关系。通过这种方法，我们可以将替代品与互补品区分开来，可以分离出同一季度内的多个信号，还可以对时间和信号特征进行调节。我们发现，分析师的预测替代了盈利公告信息，而建议并没有在预测之外提供额外的信息。此外，我们的证据表明，当公布时间较远时，内部人士会卖出以规避不确定性，但当他们在一个月前进行交易时，则会提前获取盈利信息。

文章2

● 题目：Dynamic Persuasion and Strategic Search

动态说服和战略搜索

● 原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.00994

● 作者：Yunfei (Jesse) Yao

● 发布时间：2023.11.22

● 摘要：

Consumers frequently search for information before making decisions. Because their search and purchase decisions depend on the information environment, firms have a strong incentive to influence it. This paper endogenizes the consumer’s information environment from the firm’s perspective and endogenizes the search decision from the consumer’s perspective. We consider a dynamic model where a firm sequentially persuades a consumer to purchase the product. The consumer only wishes to buy the product if it is a good match. The firm designs the information structure. Given the endogenous information environment, the consumer trades off the benefit and cost of information acquisition and decides whether to search for more information. Given the information acquisition strategy of the consumer, the firm trades off the benefit and cost of information provision and determines how much information to provide. This paper characterizes the optimal information structure under a general signal space. We find that the firm only smooths information provision over multiple periods if the consumer is optimistic about the product fit before searching for information. Moreover, if the search cost for the consumer is high, the firm designs the information such that the consumer will be certain that the product is a good match and will purchase it after observing a positive signal. If the search cost is low, the firm provides noisy information such that the consumer will be uncertain about the product fit but will still buy it after observing a positive signal.

消费者在做出决策之前经常会搜索信息。由于消费者的搜索和购买决策取决于信息环境，因此企业有强烈的动机去影响信息环境。本文从企业的角度将消费者的信息环境内生化，从消费者的角度将搜索决策内生化。我们考虑了一个动态模型，即企业依次说服消费者购买产品。消费者只希望购买匹配度高的产品。企业设计信息结构。在内生信息环境下，消费者权衡获取信息的收益和成本，决定是否搜索更多信息。鉴于消费者的信息获取策略，企业在信息提供的收益和成本之间进行权衡，并决定提供多少信息。本文描述了一般信号空间下的最优信息结构。我们发现，只有当消费者在搜索信息前对产品适合度持乐观态度时，企业才会在多个时期内平滑地提供信息。此外，如果消费者的搜索成本很高，那么企业在设计信息时就会让消费者确信产品匹配度很高，并在观察到积极信号后购买产品。如果搜索成本较低，企业提供的信息就会产生噪音，使消费者无法确定产品是否匹配但在观察到积极信号后仍会购买。

文章3

● 题目：An Equivalence Between Fair Division and Wagering Mechanisms

公平分配机制与下注机制之间的等价关系

● 原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.02615

● 作者：Rupert Freeman, Jens Witkowski, Jennifer Wortman Vaughan, David M. Pennock

● 发布时间：2023.11.22

● 摘要：We draw a surprising and direct mathematical equivalence between the class of fair division mechanisms, designed to allocate divisible goods without money, and the class of weakly budget-balanced wagering mechanisms, designed to elicit probabilities. Although this correspondence between fair division and wagering has applications in both settings, we focus on its implications for the design of incentive-compatible fair division mechanisms. In particular, we show that applying the correspondence to competitive scoring rules, a prominent class of wagering mechanisms based on proper scoring rules, yields the first incentive-compatible fair division mechanism that is both fair (proportional and envy-free) and responsive to agent preferences. Moreover, for two agents, we show that competitive scoring rules characterize the whole class of nonwasteful and incentive-compatible fair division mechanisms, subject to mild technical conditions. As one of several consequences, this allows us to resolve an open question about the best possible approximation to optimal utilitarian welfare that can be achieved by any incentive-compatible mechanism. Finally, because the equivalence greatly expands the set of known incentive-compatible fair division mechanisms, we conclude with an evaluation of this entire set, comparing the mechanisms’ axiomatic properties and examining their welfare performance in simulation

我们在公平分配机制和弱预算平衡下注机制之间得出了一个令人惊讶的直接数学等价关系，前者旨在分配可分割的物品而不需要金钱，后者旨在激发概率。尽管公平分配和打赌之间的这种对应关系在这两种情况下都有应用，但我们将重点放在它对设计激励兼容的公平分配机制的影响上。特别是，我们证明了将这种对应关系应用于竞争性计分规则--一类基于适当计分规则的著名赌注机制--会产生第一个与激励相容的公平分配机制，它既公平（成比例且无嫉妒）又符合代理人的偏好。此外，对于两个代理人，我们还证明了竞争性计分规则是整类非浪费和激励兼容的公平分配机制的特征，只需满足温和的技术条件。作为若干结果之一，这让我们解决了一个悬而未决的问题，即任何激励兼容的机制所能达到的最佳功利福利的最佳近似值。最后，由于等价性极大地扩展了已知的激励兼容的公平分配机制的集合，我们最后对整个集合进行了评估，比较了这些机制的公理属性，并考察了它们在模拟中的福利表现。

文章4

● 题目：A Decomposition of Conditional Risk Premia and Implications for Representative Agent Models

条件风险溢价分解及其对代表代理模型的影响

● 原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.01663

● 作者：Fousseni Chabi-Yo, Johnathan A. Loudis

● 发布时间：2023.11.22

● 摘要：

We develop a methodology to decompose the conditional market risk premium and risk premia on higher-order moments of excess market returns into risk premia related to contingent claims on down, up, and moderate market returns. The decomposition exploits information about the risk-neutral market return distribution embedded in option prices, but does not depend on assumptions about the functional form of investor preferences or about the market return distribution. The total market risk premium is highly time-varying, as are the contributions from downside, upside, and central risk. Time-series variation in risk premia associated with each region is primarily driven by variation in risk prices associated with the probability of entering each region at short horizons, but it is primarily driven by variation in risk quantities at longer horizons. Analogous decompositions implied by prominent representative agent models generally fail to match the dynamic risk premium behavior implied by the data. Our results provide a set of new empirical facts regarding the drivers of conditional risk premia and identify new challenges for representative agent models.

我们开发了一种方法，将条件市场风险溢价和超额市场回报高阶矩的风险溢价分解为与市场回报下跌、上涨和温和的或有要求相关的风险溢价。这种分解方法利用了期权价格中蕴含的风险中性市场收益分布的信息，但并不依赖于投资者偏好的函数形式或市场收益分布的假设。总的市场风险溢价是高度时变的，下行风险、上行风险和中心风险的贡献也是如此。与每个区域相关的风险溢价的时序变化主要是由与进入每个区域的概率相关的风险价格的短期变化所驱动的，但它主要是由风险数量的长期变化所驱动的。著名的代表代理人模型所隐含的类似分解通常无法与数据所隐含的动态风险溢价行为相匹配。我们的研究结果为条件风险溢价的驱动因素提供了一系列新的经验事实，并为代表代理模型提出了新的挑战。

文章5

● 题目：An fMRI Investigation of the Neurocognitive Processing of Measures and Strategic Objectives

对措施和战略目标神经认知处理的 fMRI 研究

● 原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.01405

● 作者：Paul W. Black, C. Brock Kirwan, Thomas O. Meservy, William B. Tayler, Jeffrey Williams

● 发布时间：2023.11.22

● 摘要：A central feature of most organizations is the use of measures to represent key elements of performance across multiple strategic objectives. Prior research demonstrates a tendency for individuals to treat these measures as though they are the higher order strategic objectives the measures were intended to represent as opposed to imperfect representations of those strategic objectives—a phenomenon labeled “surrogation.” We employ an experiment to further understand this phenomenon. In this study, we capture neural activation when processing measures and when processing strategic objectives. We find that, in regions of the brain with greater (less) activation for concrete versus abstract words, brain activation is greater (less) when processing measure phrases versus when processing strategy phrases. We further find evidence that greater brain activity and longer response times are associated with less surrogation. This affirms the notion that increased cognitive involvement can reduce surrogation.

大多数组织的一个核心特征是使用衡量标准来代表多个战略目标的关键绩效要素。先前的研究表明，个人倾向于将这些衡量标准视为衡量标准所要代表的高阶战略目标，而不是这些战略目标的不完美代表--这种现象被称为 "代用"。我们通过一项实验来进一步了解这一现象。在这项研究中，我们捕捉了处理测量指标和处理战略目标时的神经激活。我们发现，在大脑中对具体词和抽象词激活程度较高（较低）的区域，在处理测量短语和处理战略短语时，大脑激活程度较高（较低）。我们还发现有证据表明，更强的大脑活动和更长的反应时间与更少的代用相关。这证实了增加认知参与可以减少代词的观点。

文章6

● 题目：Belief Updating Beyond the Two-State Setting

超越两状态设定的信念更新

● 原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.00513

● 作者：Hannes Mohrschladt, Maren Baars, Thomas Langer

● 发布时间：2023.11.22

● 摘要：

Heuristics and biases in probabilistic belief updating have typically been examined in simple two-state experimental settings. We argue that the two-state setting has probabilistic properties that do not extend to settings with more states. With three states, we find that individuals apply similar heuristics, such as representativeness and anchoring, when providing posterior probability distributions. However, because of the different normative benchmark, the use of these heuristics results in different biases for point estimates. In particular, we demonstrate that the well-known finding of stronger underinference for larger signal sets does not translate from the two-state to the three-state setting. Our findings caution against an indiscriminate transfer of updating biases observed in two-state settings to a broad set of real-world applications.

概率信念更新中的启发式和偏差通常是在简单的双状态实验环境中进行研究的。我们认为，双状态设置的概率特性并不能延伸到更多状态的设置中。我们发现，在三个状态下，个体在提供后验概率分布时会采用相似的启发式方法，如代表性和锚定。然而，由于规范基准不同，使用这些启发式方法会导致点估计值出现不同的偏差。特别是，我们证明了众所周知的信号集越大，推断越不充分的结论并没有从两状态转化为三状态。我们的发现告诫我们，不要不加区别地将双状态设置中观察到的更新偏差转移到广泛的实际应用中。

文章7

● 题目：Overconservativeness of Variance-Based Efficiency Criteria and Probabilistic Efficiency in Rare-Event Simulation

罕见事件模拟中基于方差的效率标准和概率效率的过度保守性

● 原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4973

● 作者：Yuanlu Bai, Zhiyuan Huang, Henry Lam, Ding Zhao

● 发布时间：2023.11.23

● 摘要：

In rare-event simulation, an importance sampling (IS) estimator is regarded as efficient if its relative error, namely, the ratio between its standard deviation and mean, is sufficiently controlled. It is widely known that when a rare-event set contains multiple “important regions” encoded by the so-called dominating points, the IS needs to account for all of them via mixing to achieve efficiency. We argue that in typical experiments, missing less significant dominating points may not necessarily cause inefficiency, and the traditional analysis recipe could suffer from intrinsic looseness by using relative error or, in turn, estimation variance as an efficiency criterion. We propose a new efficiency notion, which we call probabilistic efficiency, to tighten this gap. In particular, we show that under the standard Gartner-Ellis large deviations regime, an IS that uses only the most significant dominating points is sufficient to attain this efficiency notion. Our finding is especially relevant in high-dimensional settings where the computational effort to locate all dominating points is enormous.

在罕见事件模拟中，如果相对误差（即标准偏差与平均值之比）得到充分控制，那么重要度采样（IS）估计器就被认为是有效的。众所周知，当稀有事件集包含由所谓的支配点编码的多个 "重要区域 "时，重要度抽样需要通过混合来考虑所有支配点，从而达到高效。我们认为，在典型的实验中，遗漏不那么重要的支配点并不一定会导致效率低下，而且传统的分析方法如果使用相对误差或反过来使用估计方差作为效率标准，可能会产生内在的松散性。为了缩小这一差距，我们提出了一种新的效率概念，我们称之为概率效率。我们特别指出，在标准的 Gartner-Ellis 大偏差机制下，仅使用最重要的支配点的 IS 就足以达到这种效率概念。我们的发现与高维环境尤其相关，因为在高维环境中，定位所有支配点的计算量非常大。

文章8

● 题目：Intraconsumer Price Discrimination with Credit Refund Policies

消费者内部的价格歧视与信贷退款政策

● 原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.03042

● 作者：Yan Liu, Dan Zhang

● 发布时间：2023.11.23

● 摘要：Consumers often receive a full or partial refund for product returns or service cancellations. Much of the existing literature studies cash refunds, where consumers get the money back minus a fee upon a product return or service cancellation. However, not all refunds are issued in cash. Sometimes consumers receive credit that can be used for future purchases, oftentimes with an expiration term after which the credit is forfeited. We study the optimal design of credit refund policies. Different from models that consider cash refunds, we explicitly model repeated interactions between the seller and consumers over time. We assume that consumers’ valuation for the product/service varies over time and that there is an exogenous probability for product returns. Several interesting results emerge. First, a credit refund policy facilitates intraconsumer price discrimination for a single type of consumers with stochastic valuation. Second, an optimal policy often involves an intermediate credit expiration term, under which a consumer with a high product valuation always makes a purchase, whereas a consumer with a low product valuation may be induced to make a purchase as the credit approaches expiration, leading to a demand induction effect. Finally, a credit refund policy can be more profitable than a cash refund policy and can lead to a win-win outcome for both the firm and consumers under certain conditions. We also consider several extensions to check the robustness of our findings.

消费者在退货或取消服务时通常会收到全额或部分退款。现有文献大多研究的是现金退款，即消费者在退货或取消服务时，扣除一定费用后获得退款。然而，并非所有退款都是现金。有时，消费者会获得可用于未来购物的信用额度，但信用额度往往有一个有效期，过期则会被取消。我们研究了信用退款政策的优化设计。与考虑现金退款的模型不同，我们明确地模拟了卖方与消费者在一段时间内的重复互动。我们假设消费者对产品/服务的评价随时间而变化，并且产品退货的概率是外生的。我们得出了几个有趣的结果。首先，对于具有随机估值的单一类型消费者而言，信用退款政策有利于消费者内部的价格歧视。其次，最优政策往往涉及中间信贷到期期限，在此期限内，产品估值高的消费者总是会购买，而产品估值低的消费者则可能会在信贷临近到期时购买，从而产生需求诱导效应。最后，在某些条件下，信用退款政策可能比现金退款政策更有利可图，并能为企业和消费者带来双赢的结果。我们还考虑了几种扩展方法，以检验我们研究结果的稳健性。

文章9

● 题目：Financing Innovative Activity and the Endogeneity of Patenting

创新活动的融资与专利申请的内生性

● 原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.00744

● 作者：Robert Marquez, Thành Nguyen, M. Deniz Yavuz

● 发布时间：2023.11.28

● 摘要：

It is common for lenders to require innovative firms to report all innovations and take actions, such as patenting, to protect their value. However, many future innovations are difficult to verify, making enforcement of such requirements difficult. This creates a tension for firms between protecting their innovations through patenting and creating assets that can be liquidated by a lender when not fully repaid. We show that the endogeneity of the patenting decision introduces an upper bound on the long-term payments that can be credibly promised to a lender, affecting the feasibility of obtaining financing and the terms of financial contracts.

贷款人通常会要求创新企业报告所有创新成果，并采取行动（如申请专利）保护创新成果的价值。然而，许多未来的创新很难核实，因此很难执行这些要求。这就造成了企业在通过申请专利保护创新和创造资产以便在贷款人未全额偿还贷款时将其变现之间的矛盾。我们的研究表明，专利申请决策的内生性为可向贷款人可信承诺的长期付款带来了上限，从而影响了获得融资的可行性和金融合同的条款。

文章10

● 题目：Smartphone Trading Technology, Investor Behavior, and Mutual Fund Performance

智能手机交易技术、投资者行为与共同基金业绩

● 原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.02099

● 作者：Xiao Cen

● 发布时间：2023.11.28

● 摘要：

Using proprietary individual-level trading data around a natural experiment—the release of a smartphone trading app by a large investment advisor—this study investigates how smartphone trading technology affects retail investor behavior and mutual fund performance. App adoption by retail investors leads to an increase in investor attention and trading volume. App adopters’ flows become more sensitive to short-term fund returns and market sentiment, resulting in higher aggregate flow volume among adopters. The funds more exposed to the shock experience a greater decline in abnormal returns, likely attributable to higher fund flow volume and liquidity costs. As a result, both adopters and nonadopters experience a decline in their mutual fund investment returns.

本研究围绕一个自然实验--一家大型投资顾问公司发布智能手机交易应用程序--使用专有的个人层面交易数据，研究了智能手机交易技术如何影响散户投资者行为和共同基金业绩。散户投资者采用应用程序会提高投资者的关注度和交易量。应用程序采用者的流量对短期基金回报和市场情绪更加敏感，从而导致采用者的总流量增加。受冲击影响较大的基金异常回报下降幅度更大，这可能归因于基金流量和流动性成本的增加。因此，采用者和非采用者的共同基金投资收益都会下降。

文章11

● 题目：Not All Shocks Are Created Equal: Assessing Heterogeneity in the Bank Lending Channel

并非所有冲击都相同：评估银行贷款渠道的异质性

● 原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.00104

● 作者：Gil Nogueira, Luísa Farinha, Laura Blattner

● 发布时间：2023.11.29

● 摘要：

We provide evidence that the yield impact of unconventional monetary policy is not a sufficient statistic to measure the strength of the bank lending channel of unconventional monetary policy. As a laboratory, we study three major positive events in the European sovereign debt crisis—the Greek debt restructuring (private sector involvement (PSI)), outright monetary transactions (OMT), and quantitative easing (QE)—using credit registry and security-level bank balance sheet data from Portugal, a country that was directly exposed to all three events. Even though the price of sovereign debt increased by substantially more after the PSI and OMT announcements, only QE led banks to reduce their net sovereign debt holdings and had statistically and economically significant effects on lending to firms and households. The differential effect on banks’ behavior reflects two forces. First, lower bank capitalization levels during the PSI and OMT episodes as well as disincentives to sell sovereign bonds because of their collateral value in the European Central Bank’s long-term refinancing operation facilities reduce the effectiveness of the recapitalization channel. Second, only QE involved direct asset purchases by the central bank and thereby induced a portfolio rebalancing channel from sovereign debt to loans.

我们提供的证据表明，非常规货币政策的收益率影响并不是衡量非常规货币政策银行贷款渠道强度的充分统计数字。作为一个实验室，我们研究了欧洲主权债务危机中的三大积极事件--希腊债务重组（私营部门参与（PSI））、直接货币交易（OMT）和量化宽松（QE）--并使用了葡萄牙的信贷登记和证券层面的银行资产负债表数据，葡萄牙直接受到了这三个事件的影响。尽管主权债务价格在 PSI 和 OMT 宣布后大幅上涨，但只有量化宽松政策导致银行减少其持有的主权债务净额，并对企业和家庭贷款产生了统计和经济上的显著影响。对银行行为的不同影响反映了两种力量。首先，在 PSI 和 OMT 事件中，银行资本水平较低，而且由于主权债券在欧洲中央银行长期再融资操作机制中的抵押品价值，出售主权债券的积极性受到抑制，这降低了资本重组渠道的有效性。其次，只有量化宽松涉及中央银行直接购买资产，从而诱发了从主权债务到贷款的投资组合再平衡渠道。

文章12

● 题目：Co-Opetition and the Firm’s Information Environment

共同竞争与企业的信息环境

● 原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.03152

● 作者：Brian J. Bushee, Thomas Keusch, Jessica Kim-Gina

● 发布时间：2023.11.29

● 摘要：

Some firms in the technology sector choose to cooperate with competitors (“co-opetition”) in standard setting organizations (SSOs). These SSOs create technology standards that facilitate rapid market penetration of new technologies such as Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, and 4G. Active participation in the standard setting process requires the exchange of proprietary information with competitors. Although the goal of such information sharing is to further a technology or a product market, firms potentially receive an additional benefit from access to competitor and industry information. We examine whether contributing to SSO committees enhances a firm’s information set and allows managers to better predict future sales. We find that the centrality of a firm’s location within the network of SSO collaborators is positively related to the accuracy of the firm’s sales forecasts. This relation is stronger when firms exchange more information with direct competitors and with larger firms, when forecasting is more difficult ex ante, and when firms forecast over longer horizons. Our findings show that collaborating with competitors in the product market provides an important additional benefit of improving the manager’s information set.

技术领域的一些公司选择在标准制定组织（SSOs）中与竞争对手合作（"合作竞争"）。这些标准制定组织制定的技术标准有助于 Wi-Fi、蓝牙和 4G 等新技术快速进入市场。积极参与标准制定过程需要与竞争对手交换专有信息。虽然这种信息共享的目的是促进技术或产品市场的发展，但企业可能会从获取竞争对手和行业信息中获得额外的好处。我们研究了加入 SSO 委员会是否会增强企业的信息集，并使管理者更好地预测未来的销售情况。我们发现，企业在 SSO 合作者网络中的中心位置与企业销售预测的准确性呈正相关。当企业与直接竞争对手和大型企业交换更多信息时，当事前预测更困难时，当企业预测的时间跨度更长时，这种关系会更强。我们的研究结果表明，与产品市场上的竞争对手合作可以为改善管理者的信息集带来重要的额外收益。

文章13

● 题目：Inferring Intermediary Risk Exposure from Trade

从贸易中推断中间商风险敞口

● 原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.01831

● 作者：Chris Anderson, Weiling Liu

● 发布时间：2023.11.29

● 摘要：We propose a novel measure of intermediary risk exposure based on the fraction of all trade that is conducted between dealers, called the interdealer trade (IDT) measure. Intuitively, when dealers’ aggregate risk exposure rises, they trade more with each other to redistribute inventory shocks. Consistent with risk exposures relating to expected returns, market-specific IDT measures add incremental return predictability across five different markets. For example, one-standard-deviation increases in the Treasury and foreign exchange (FX) IDT measures, respectively, forecast a 1.8% higher annual excess return on a five-year bond and a 3.7% higher annual excess return on currency-specific FX trades.

我们提出了一种新的中间商风险度量方法，该方法基于交易商之间进行的所有交易中的一部分，称为交易商间交易（IDT）度量方法。直观地说，当交易商的总风险敞口上升时，他们会更多地相互交易，以重新分配库存冲击。与预期收益相关的风险敞口一致，特定市场的 IDT 指标增加了五个不同市场的增量收益可预测性。例如，国债和外汇 IDT 测量值每增加一个标准差，五年期债券的年超额收益率就会增加 1.8%，特定货币外汇交易的年超额收益率就会增加 3.7%。

文章14

● 题目：Choosing to Discover the Unknown: The Effects of Choice on User Attention to Online Video Advertising

选择探索未知：选择对用户关注网络视频广告的影响

● 原文链接：https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2019.03291

● 作者：Cheng Luo, Zhenhui (Jack) Jiang, Xiuping Li, Cheng Yi, Catherine Tucker

● 发布时间：2023.11.30

● 摘要：

Online video platforms face the challenge of balancing the needs of their users with those of their advertisers. Although users typically prefer to have less intrusive ads, advertisers aim to effectively catch user attention. This paper investigates how the provision of ad choice affects the effectiveness of video advertising. We argue that allowing users to choose an ad to view may trigger a “conjecture-formation-and-confirmation” process that motivates users to pay more attention to the selected ad. Two online experiments and four laboratory experiments are conducted to test the theorized underlying mechanism of the ad choice effect. Study 1 finds when users are unfamiliar (versus familiar) with the content of ad options (i.e., they need to make conjectures about ad content), ad choice is more likely to increase user attention to the chosen ad. Study 2 and Study 3 show that the impact of ad choice on user attention is more likely to be positive when users are enabled to make conjectures about ad content, such as when choice options provide more relevant information about ad content. Study 4a and Study 4b provide more direct support for the underlying mechanism by showing that the ad choice effect is attenuated when users cannot form conjectures about ad content at the choice stage. Study 5 further demonstrates that the positive effect of ad choice is robust across different ad settings. Taken together, these studies show ad choice is more likely to boost the effectiveness of video advertising when the “conjecture-formation-and-confirmation” process is triggered.

在线视频平台面临着平衡用户需求和广告商需求的挑战。虽然用户通常更喜欢干扰性较低的广告，但广告商的目标是有效吸引用户的注意力。本文研究了提供广告选择权如何影响视频广告的效果。我们认为，允许用户选择观看广告可能会引发一个 "猜想-形成-确认 "的过程，促使用户更加关注所选广告。我们进行了两项在线实验和四项实验室实验来检验广告选择效应的理论基础机制。研究 1 发现，当用户不熟悉（相对于熟悉）广告选项的内容时（即他们需要对广告内容进行猜测），广告选择更有可能提高用户对所选广告的关注度。研究 2 和研究 3 表明，当用户能够对广告内容进行猜测时，广告选择对用户注意力的影响更有可能是积极的，比如当选择选项提供了更多与广告内容相关的信息时。研究 4a 和研究 4b 显示，当用户在选择阶段无法对广告内容形成猜测时，广告选择效应就会减弱，从而为基本机制提供了更直接的支持。研究 5 进一步证明，广告选择的积极效应在不同的广告设置中都是稳健的。综上所述，这些研究表明，当 "猜想-形成-确认 "过程被触发时，广告选择更有可能提高视频广告的效果。